Poll: Labour to hold 52 London seats, Greens win none
MRP survey by More in Common suggests Conservatives gain five seats and Reform UK takes one.
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Higher is stronger
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Labour is on course to retain 52 of its 59 parliamentary seats in London, according to a new MRP survey conducted by More in Common. The poll indicates the Green Party will fail to secure any seats in the capital, a result that contrasts with their performance in recent local elections.
Conservative gains and Reform UK's single seat
Holborn and St Pancras by-election: Greens challenge Labour stronghold
Green Party candidate Zack Polanski faces Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali in a contest for a seat held by Labour since 1983.
The survey suggests the Conservative Party is set to gain five seats in London, increasing their total to 14. These gains are expected in constituencies such as Chelsea and Fulham, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Bexleyheath and Crayford, all currently held by Labour. Reform UK is projected to win only one seat in London, specifically Romford, where the incumbent MP Andrew Rosindell defected to the party.
This projection for Reform UK represents a significant decrease from a July poll, which had anticipated the party winning five seats in the city. The report attributes some of Labour's resilience in London to what is described as a 'Burnham bounce', referencing former Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham.
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Despite the overall positive outlook for Labour in London, the poll also highlights ongoing challenges. Sammy McDonald of More in Common noted that 'the challenges to Labour’s marginal seats across the capital, and the progressive challenge across Inner London, remain'. The Holborn and St Pancras constituency is identified as a key battleground, where the outcome of the race between Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali and the Green Party's Zack Polanski could indicate broader trends. The Green Party is currently in second place in 21 seats across London.
The survey also indicates that Defence Secretary Wes Streeting is predicted to lose his Ilford North seat to an independent candidate. Jeremy Corbyn is expected to retain his Islington North seat, and the Liberal Democrats are projected to hold their six constituencies in south west London.
Methodology
The MRP research, conducted by More in Common, uses multi-level regression and post-stratification. This method involves large-scale polling of various societal groups and extrapolating these results to a constituency level. The report acknowledges that this methodology does not account for the specific impact of individual MPs or other localised factors.
Questions this report answers
+How many seats is Labour expected to win in London according to the poll?
The MRP survey by More in Common suggests that the Labour Party is likely to retain 52 of its 59 parliamentary seats in London. This indicates a strong performance for Labour across the capital, though it represents a loss of seven seats compared to the July 2024 general election.
+Will the Green Party win any seats in London based on this poll?
No, the poll indicates that the Green Party is not expected to win any parliamentary seats in London. This is despite the party's recent success in local elections and its current second-place position in 21 constituencies across the capital.
+Which other parties are predicted to win seats in London?
The Conservative Party is forecast to gain five seats in London, bringing their total to 14. Reform UK is projected to win only one seat, the Romford constituency. The Liberal Democrats are expected to hold their existing six seats in south west London.
+Which specific London seats might Labour lose?
The poll suggests Labour could lose seats to the Conservatives in Chelsea and Fulham, Hendon, Cities of London and Westminster, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, and Bexleyheath and Crayford. Additionally, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting is predicted to lose his Ilford North seat to an independent candidate.
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