Poll finds Londoners prefer outsider for next Tory mayoral candidate

Londoners would prefer the Conservative Party’s next mayoral candidate to have no links to the previous government, according to a poll conducted for a potential contender. The survey, carried out by Opinium between 10 and 17 July, suggests that former ministers may struggle to win support in the 2028 election.

The findings pose a challenge for James Cleverly, the former Home Secretary and current shadow cabinet member, who has been widely tipped as a potential candidate. The poll indicates that voters are more likely to back a candidate with experience in business or policing rather than one with a Westminster background.

Read Next in News London5 min read

Hillingdon cuts school exclusions by 23 percent as national rates rise

Northwood School has not permanently excluded any pupil in three years, using therapeutic approaches instead

Policing and business credentials favoured

The poll tested various candidate traits with voters. It found that 52% of respondents would be more likely to support a Conservative candidate with experience in tackling crime and policing. Only 11% said they would be less likely to back such a candidate. Business experience was also seen as an asset.

Festus Akinbusoye, a Westminster Conservative councillor and former Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner, commissioned the survey. Akinbusoye runs a facilities management business and is exploring a potential bid for the mayoralty. His team described the results as evidence that the Conservative Party should select a candidate with a fresh profile.

Related Borough Coverage5 min read

London drought triggers Amber health alert as Barnet faces water restrictions

Barnet residents urged to cut water use after record-breaking July with no rainfall in Kew

Without mentioning names, this poll tested different candidate profiles and found that Londoners are more drawn to a Conservative candidate combining policing experience, business credentials and a fresh profile than one defined by previous Westminster experience.

Spokesperson for Festus Akinbusoye’s exploratory committee

Conservatives yet to begin selection process

The Conservative Party has not yet started the official process to choose its candidate for the 2028 London mayoral election. Current Mayor Sadiq Khan, a Labour politician, has not confirmed whether he will seek a fourth term. Khan was re-elected in 2024, defeating Conservative candidate Susan Hall.

Hall, the leader of the London Conservatives, is understood to be unlikely to stand again. She told the *Evening Standard* that the candidate’s background was less important than their understanding of the role and ability to connect with voters. "We need a mayoral candidate who can connect with voters, who understands how to use the levers of power that will be available to them and who has a vision for a better London," she said.

Labour and Reform voters open to switching

The poll also found that some voters from other parties might consider switching to the Conservatives. Among likely Reform UK voters, 29% said they would consider voting Conservative, while 27% said they might. Among Labour voters, 20% said they would consider a Tory vote, and 21% said they might.

Reform UK has already selected its candidate for the next mayoral election. Laila Cunningham, a former Crown Prosecution Service prosecutor and Westminster councillor, will represent the party. The poll did not test her profile against potential Conservative candidates.

Londoners divided on city’s direction

The survey also gauged broader public opinion about London. It found that 51% of respondents believe the city is heading in the wrong direction, while 34% think it is moving in the right direction. Issues such as policing, crime, and housing were identified as the most pressing concerns over which the mayor has influence.

A Conservative Party spokesman said the party would select its candidate "in due course". A Labour spokesperson dismissed the idea of Tory figures rehabilitating themselves, stating that the party had "let Londoners down for 14 years while in government".

What happens next

The Conservative Party has not set a timeline for selecting its 2028 mayoral candidate. Potential contenders, including Akinbusoye and others with policing or business backgrounds, may continue to test public opinion in the coming months. The next mayoral election is scheduled for 2028, with the winner taking office in May of that year.