Labour projected to win 59-60 London seats in election poll
New survey suggests significant gains for Labour and losses for Conservatives and Greens across the capital.
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Labour is forecast to secure a commanding majority of London's parliamentary seats at the next general election, according to a new poll. The survey, conducted by Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now, projects Labour could win 59 or 60 of the 75 seats available in the capital.
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The poll indicates a significant surge in Labour's support in London, reaching 34%, an increase of nine percentage points since July. This rise contrasts with projections for other parties. The Green Party, led by Zack Polanski, which had previously been predicted to win multiple seats, is now forecast to secure none in London. The Conservative Party faces potential losses, with projections suggesting they could lose seats such as Croydon South and potentially Hendon and Finchley and Golders Green.
Nigel Farage's Reform UK is projected to gain one seat, Bexleyheath and Crayford, from Labour. The Liberal Democrats are expected to retain their six constituencies in south west London. The poll also suggested Labour might unseat Jeremy Corbyn in Islington North.
Methodology and Commentary
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The survey involved 6,699 participants and was conducted between 25 September and 2 October 2026. Martin Baxter, chief executive of Electoral Calculus, commented that Andy Burnham's leadership appeared to be unifying left-of-centre votes, drawing support from the Liberal Democrats and Greens. He noted this contrasted with the Labour party's position earlier in the year. The poll's methodology, multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP), extrapolates from large-scale polling to constituency level but does not account for individual candidate popularity.
Kevin Craig, chief executive of PR firm PLMR, which commissioned the poll, stated that Andy Burnham's leadership was resonating with voters due to clear communication. The national projections from the survey indicated Labour could win 353 seats, giving them a majority of 56.
Questions this report answers
+How many seats could Labour win in London according to the poll?
The Electoral Calculus/Find Out Now poll projects that the Labour Party could win between 59 and 60 of the 75 parliamentary seats in London at the next general election. This represents a significant potential increase in their representation across the capital.
+What is the projected support for Labour in London?
The poll indicates that Labour has 34% support in London, which is a nine percentage point increase compared to July. This surge in support is a key factor in the projection of Labour winning a large number of seats.
+What are the projections for the Conservative and Green parties?
The poll suggests the Conservative Party may lose seats in London, and the Green Party is projected to win no seats in the capital. Reform UK is forecast to gain one seat, Bexleyheath and Crayford, from Labour.
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