Holborn and St Pancras by-election: Greens challenge Labour stronghold

The Holborn and St Pancras constituency will hold a by-election on October 8, with Labour candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali facing a challenge from Green Party leader Zack Polanski. The seat has been held by the Labour Party since 1983.

Candidates and Odds

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Bookmakers currently favour Sagal Abdi-Wali, who also leads Camden Council, to win the by-election. Zack Polanski is listed at longer odds, with independent candidate George Galloway also standing. Other parties, including Reform UK, the Conservatives, and Liberal Democrats, are considered to have minimal chances of winning.

Green Party's Challenge

Mr Polanski has acknowledged he is the "underdog" in the contest, which was vacated by a former Prime Minister. He is aiming to achieve "one of the biggest upsets in British political history" by taking the traditionally safe Labour seat. He has urged Green Party activists to campaign in the constituency, even suggesting they skip the party's annual conference in Brighton to do so.

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Despite a YouGov poll suggesting the Green Party might win no seats in London at the next general election, Mr Polanski pointed to past successes. He referenced the Green Party winning four parliamentary seats in the 2024 general election and gaining a fifth MP in a by-election in Gorton and Denton earlier this year. He also highlighted the party's gains in London council elections in May, where they took control of six town halls.

Mr Polanski stated that he is hearing from voters that Labour's ideas are "tired" and not addressing current issues such as the cost of housing and rent controls. He expressed confidence in his campaign, despite the challenges, and is committed to campaigning for every vote.

Labour's Position

Labour won the Holborn and St Pancras seat in the 2024 general election with a majority of 11,572 votes. At that election, the Labour candidate received 18,884 votes, while the Greens secured 4,030 votes. Labour strategists believe they are outnumbering Green activists on the ground and that some voters are returning to the Labour Party. They also suggest that some Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters may consider voting for Ms Abdi-Wali as a way to oppose Mr Polanski.

The presence of George Galloway as a candidate could potentially split the left-leaning and anti-Labour vote, which may complicate Mr Polanski's efforts to challenge Labour's long-held majority.