David Lammy warns Tottenham majority could shrink to about 1,000 votes
Labour MP says demographic change and Green gains mean his seat may become marginal, despite a 15,434‑vote win in July 2024
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David Lammy told attendees at a fundraising dinner on 24 July that his margin in Tottenham could be as low as one thousand votes. He linked the projection to recent demographic shifts and rising support for the Green Party, saying the seat is no longer safe.
Fundraising dinner remarks
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Lammy explained that an Electoral Calculus model showed a potential reduction from his 2024 majority to a figure barely above the thousand‑vote threshold. He added that the influx of new residents, whom he described as “hipsters”, has altered voting patterns across the constituency.
My majority was 15,000 at the general election, but I went on to Electoral Calculus and it says if the seat of Tottenham is retained by David Lammy, it will be no more than 1,000 votes.
David Lammy, MP for Tottenham
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In the July 2024 general election Lammy secured 23,066 votes, a 57.5% share of the total, while the Green candidate finished second with 7,632 votes. The margin between them was 15,434 votes, a drop of 20.3 percentage points from his 2019 tally of 35,621 votes.
Poll outlook for the next election
A Savanta poll commissioned by the Mile End Institute for Queen Mary University of London suggested Labour could lose 18 seats across London at the next general election, expected in 2029. The same modelling indicated Lammy would likely retain Tottenham despite the tighter numbers.
Luke Tryl, director of the think‑tank More in Common, said the poll reflects a period when Green support in Haringey council elections heightened concerns for Labour. He noted that recent polling shows the Green surge has eased, but the longer‑term trend remains uncertain.
Lammy said the prospect of a marginal seat has prompted him to hire a full‑time community organiser and to increase fundraising activity. He indicated that additional resources will be directed toward door‑to‑door canvassing, leafleting and data collection to identify local issues.
Residents can expect more visible campaign activity in the coming months as the Labour team prepares for a potentially competitive race. The next formal step will be the selection of a constituency organiser, followed by a series of local events aimed at re‑engaging voters who have shifted toward the Greens.
Questions this report answers
+What did David Lammy say about his future majority in Tottenham?
Lammy told a fundraising dinner that modelling shows his majority could fall to about one thousand votes. He linked the projection to demographic change and growing Green support, indicating the seat may become marginal.
+How large was Lammy’s majority in the July 2024 general election?
Lammy won the July 2024 election with a margin of 15,434 votes, securing 57.5% of the total vote. The Green candidate came second with 7,632 votes, making the margin the key figure for comparison with the new projection.
+What does the Savanta poll say about Labour’s prospects in London?
The Savanta poll for the Mile End Institute predicts Labour could lose 18 seats in London at the next general election. Despite the broader risk, the poll suggests Lammy is likely to hold Tottenham, reflecting his still‑strong local base.
+What actions is Lammy taking in response to the tighter forecast?
Lammy announced plans to hire a full‑time community organiser and increase fundraising. The additional resources will fund door‑to‑door canvassing, leafleting and data collection, aiming to re‑engage voters who have drifted toward the Greens.
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