TfL fare evasion cost could reach £211m annually, review reveals
Transport for London admits potential losses are higher than previously stated due to data limitations.
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Transport for London (TfL) has disclosed that fare evasion could be costing the network up to £211 million per year. This figure is potentially £20 million higher than the £190 million previously stated as the annual loss. The admission, made public for the first time, stems from an internal TfL review that acknowledged limitations in available data.
Officials confirmed that a 10 percent reduction is applied to the estimated value of fare evasion losses. This adjustment is made because estimates are derived from intelligence-led activity at specific locations, which may not fully represent the entire network. The review concluded that this reduction reflects a medium confidence level associated with the overall assumptions and the absence of a system that automatically matches passenger journeys with payments.
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TfL's Fare Evasion Targets
The current fare evasion rate is approximately 3.5 percent. TfL has set a goal to reduce this rate to 1.5 percent by the end of 2031. The organisation stated that robust analysis of fare evasion is a vital tool in tackling the issue and that all figures produced are estimates calculated according to TfL’s best interpretation of the data, in line with industry standards.
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Thomas Turrell, the transport spokesman for the City Hall Conservatives, criticised the situation. He stated that underestimating data leads TfL to not take the issue seriously, causing further underestimation. Festus Akinbusoye, a former Police and Crime Commissioner and member of Westminster City Council, added that the situation is unfair to those who pay their fares and suggested TfL and the Mayor have been focused on downplaying the problem rather than tackling it.
A TfL spokesperson responded by stating that the estimated cost of £190 million represents an evidence-based assessment that takes data limitations into account. They also noted that the detailed information supporting the internal confidence assessment has not been published to avoid compromising TfL’s ability to prevent, detect, and respond to fare evasion.
Future Technology
TfL anticipates that newer technology, such as modern gateline infrastructure being tested in New York, could enable more accurate tracking of individuals passing through barriers without paying.
Questions this report answers
+What is the estimated annual cost of fare evasion to TfL?
Transport for London (TfL) estimates that fare evasion costs the network £190 million annually. However, an internal review suggests the actual figure could be as high as £211 million per year due to data limitations.
+Why is the estimated cost of fare evasion higher than previously reported?
An internal TfL review acknowledged that limitations in available data mean a 10 percent reduction is applied to the estimated value of fare evasion losses. The higher figure of £211 million reflects the potential losses without this reduction, acknowledging the uncertainty in data.
+What is TfL's target for reducing fare evasion?
TfL aims to reduce the current fare evasion rate of around 3.5 percent to 1.5 percent by the end of 2031. This target is part of ongoing efforts to combat losses to the transport network.
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