London flu cases rise to 'ominous' autumn high

Flu infections are increasing across London, prompting health officials to issue warnings about potential winter pressures on the NHS. Data from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) shows that flu test positivity in the capital stood at 5.6% by the end of September, a significant rise from 2.5% recorded at the end of August. Nationally, during the week of September 28 to October 4, flu swab positivity increased from 5.0% to 6.5%.

Rising Hospital Admissions and A&E Strain

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Hospital admissions for flu in London reached 1.97 per 100,000 people during the same week. This figure has been described by Professor Frankie Swords, the NHS national medical director, as the "highest" she can recall for this time of year. The increase in flu cases coincides with a rise in Covid-19 cases and follows the busiest summer on record for London's emergency departments. In September, approximately 433,000 A&E attendances were recorded in London, an increase of about 24,500 from August. Ambulance incidents also saw a rise of around 730.

Professor Swords described the current situation as "slightly ominous early signs of winter pressure" for the health service. She noted that hospital occupancy was already at an average of 95% in September, even before the colder weather typically associated with increased illness.

Call for Vaccinations

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Health officials are strongly encouraging eligible Londoners to get their flu vaccinations without delay. Dr Jamie Lopez Bernal, a consultant epidemiologist at the UKHSA, stated that the current increase in flu levels suggests the possibility of an early flu season. He emphasised that the vaccine offers protection against all three types of flu virus and remains effective even against drifted strains.

Karen Bonner, NHS London’s Chief Nurse, urged all eligible individuals to book appointments or visit walk-in sites. She highlighted that vaccination is the most effective protection against severe illness from flu, benefiting both the individual and the wider community by reducing the strain on NHS services. Bonner also pointed out that flu is a more serious illness than a common cold, potentially leading to hospitalisation for children and pregnant women, who are at greater risk of severe illness.

Dr Chris Streather, Regional Medical Director for the NHS in London, added that the virus does not wait for winter and neither should people seeking protection. He noted that vaccination takes only a few minutes and provides significant protection, especially for vulnerable individuals. Getting vaccinated early ensures protection by the time winter pressures intensify.

The UKHSA data also indicates a rise in Covid-19 cases nationally, with hospital admissions increasing five-fold over the past month. Experts anticipate that respiratory virus activity will increase as winter approaches, due to factors such as changing weather patterns and people spending more time indoors, alongside the natural waning of immunity from previous infections and vaccinations.

Next Steps for Londoners

Eligible Londoners can check their eligibility and book flu vaccination appointments through the NHS App, online, or by contacting their GP surgery or local pharmacy. Those aged over 65 and other eligible adults were offered the vaccine from October 1, while pregnant women, toddlers, and school-age children became eligible from September 1.