London faces higher risk of extreme winter weather
Record-breaking El Niño event increases likelihood of severe conditions, scientists warn.
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Londoners should prepare for a greater likelihood of extreme weather conditions this winter, according to Tim Stockdale, principal scientist at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. This warning stems from a record-breaking El Niño event occurring in the Pacific Ocean.
Record Pacific Temperatures
London weather: 21C highs forecast for Tuesday, October 13
Forecasters predict a return to warmer, sunny conditions after a period of rain and cooler temperatures.
The Japan Meteorological Agency reported on Friday that sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have reached 4°C above normal. This reading marks the highest level since records began, contributing to the phenomenon being dubbed a “Godzilla” El Niño by some.
While El Niño events typically have a stronger influence on weather patterns in regions like India, East Asia, South America, and parts of Africa, the UK is not entirely insulated. The UK Government has issued a warning that harvests could be impacted, potentially leading to higher prices for staple foods such as rice and coffee. Additionally, energy bills could also see an increase.
Uncertainty for the UK Winter
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Mr Stockdale explained that the UK's "more variable" weather patterns make it challenging to predict the precise impact of the El Niño. He indicated an expectation for the early part of the winter to be milder, wetter, and windier. This could be beneficial for southern England, which experienced drought conditions earlier in the year, helping to recharge water levels and potentially boost wind power generation.
However, the outlook for later winter remains less certain. Mr Stockdale noted that significant El Niño events can sometimes be associated with colder weather, but stressed the variability. "Where the balance of things will be in later winter, I don’t feel confident about it," he stated.
Historical Precedents and Global Warming
Past severe El Niño events have had notable impacts on London. The winter of 2015/16 and the following spring saw damaging storms and freezing weather. Storm Desmond, for instance, was linked to the death of a 90-year-old man in Finchley, north London, after he was blown in front of a bus. In Easter 2016, Storm Katie caused damage across the capital, including bending a construction crane in Greenwich and damaging dozens of roofs.
Mr Stockdale expressed concern that this El Niño is occurring on top of global warming, creating an "unprecedented danger". He described the current state of tropical oceans, which drive global weather, as something he had "never seen anything like it" before, indicating a significant stress on weather systems worldwide.
The El Niño is projected to reach its peak in December and is expected to persist through February 2027. Scientists and meteorologists are reportedly "very nervous" about the combined effects of this extreme El Niño and global warming on weather patterns.
Questions this report answers
+What is causing the increased risk of extreme winter weather in London?
The increased risk is due to a record-breaking El Niño event in the Pacific Ocean. Sea surface temperatures are 4°C above normal, the highest recorded. This phenomenon is expected to influence global weather patterns, including those affecting the UK.
+When is the El Niño expected to peak and how long will it last?
The El Niño is anticipated to peak in December and is forecast to continue through February 2027. This extended period of influence means its effects on weather patterns could be felt for several months.
+Will the UK face the worst impacts of this El Niño?
While the UK may not experience the most severe direct impacts, which are more likely in other regions, the country faces potential consequences. These include higher prices for food items like rice and coffee, and possible increases in energy bills.
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