Poll: Labour leads, Reform UK second in 2028 mayoral race

Labour is currently leading in support for the 2028 London mayoral election with 33%, according to a survey by Savanta for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London. Reform UK's candidate, Laila Cunningham, is positioned second with 20% of first choice votes.

Potential Run-off Scenario

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The poll results indicate that Laila Cunningham could secure a place in the final run-off against the Labour candidate, under the supplementary vote system used for London mayoral elections. The Conservatives are shown with 18% support, followed by the Green Party at 14% and the Liberal Democrats at 10%.

Dr Eoghan Kelly, a Postdoctoral Researcher in British Politics at Queen Mary University of London, commented on the findings. He stated that based on these figures, Labour would likely win comfortably when second preference votes are allocated. However, he noted that significant changes could occur before the election, particularly with the decision of the current Mayor, Sir Sadiq Khan, on whether he will seek a fourth term.

Sir Sadiq Khan, who has been made a peer, is expected to announce his decision regarding a fourth term next year. Recent polling suggests that a majority of Londoners would prefer him to step aside for another Labour candidate. If he does not stand, potential Labour contenders include Brent East MP Dawn Butler, David Lammy MP for Tottenham, and Rosena Allin-Khan MP for Tooting.

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Dr Kelly also observed that Sir Sadiq Khan is currently outperforming his party's national standing. He added that it cannot be guaranteed that a different Labour candidate would maintain such a substantial lead. The survey indicated 36% of Londoners were satisfied with Sir Sadiq Khan's performance, while 40% expressed dissatisfaction.

Party Standing and Candidate Selection

The survey, which interviewed 1,036 Londoners aged 18 or over online between 10 and 17 August 2026, with data weighted, also highlighted national sentiment. Satisfaction with the national Government stood at 28%, with 48% dissatisfied. Dr Kelly remarked that this poll suggests Labour has a considerable distance to travel to regain national trust.

Laila Cunningham, a former Conservative councillor in Westminster, was announced as Reform UK's candidate for London Mayor earlier this year by Nigel Farage. The Conservative Party is reportedly undertaking a broad search for its candidate, with former Home Secretary Sir James Cleverly mentioned as an early frontrunner. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch is overseeing this selection process.

The poll results could increase pressure on the Conservatives to expedite their candidate selection process, potentially to prevent Ms Cunningham from further establishing her presence in the mayoral race.